The Iran War: What It Cost, What It Achieved, and Who Benefits

The One-Sentence Version

Trump started a war with Iran that his own intelligence officials said wasn’t necessary. It has cost over $11 billion in six days, sent gas prices above $4, and hasn’t achieved any of its stated goals. The deal we already had was working.

What You Need to Know First

Iran’s nuclear program has been a concern for decades. In 2015, the Obama administration negotiated the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), a deal between Iran and six world powers.^[12] Under the deal:

Iran shipped out the vast majority of its enriched uranium
Iran dismantled approximately two-thirds of its centrifuges
Iran accepted intrusive international inspections
Iran’s “breakout time” (time needed to build a nuclear weapon) went from about 2 months to over 1 year
Every major intelligence agency and the IAEA confirmed Iran was in compliance^[12]

In 2018, Trump withdrew from the deal. He called it “the worst deal ever.” No replacement was proposed.^[8]

After Trump withdrew, Iran resumed enrichment, reaching 60% (near weapons-grade). Iran accumulated roughly 1,000 pounds of 60%-enriched uranium, enough material for 9-10 nuclear bombs. The breakout time collapsed back to weeks.

Biden tried to rejoin but failed. The Biden administration opened indirect negotiations with Iran in April 2021 but moved slowly, insisting Iran return to compliance first. By June 2021, Iran had elected hardliner Ebrahim Raisi, replacing the moderate government that had negotiated the original deal. Talks stalled as Iran’s new team walked back prior compromises and introduced new demands. By late 2022, Biden privately acknowledged the deal was “dead.” Experts argue Biden missed a critical window by not acting faster while the Rouhani government was still in power.

Biden’s Iran policy drew legitimate criticism on another front: oil sanctions enforcement. Iranian oil exports rose from roughly 860,000 barrels per day under Trump’s maximum pressure to approximately 1.6-1.9 million barrels per day under Biden, with China purchasing 80-90% of the total. Iran earned an estimated $80 billion or more in oil revenue during Biden’s presidency, dwarfing the $6 billion in frozen assets that drew most of the political attention. That $6 billion, notably, was Iran’s own frozen money restricted to humanitarian use, and none of it was ever actually disbursed — it was re-frozen after the October 7 Hamas attack.

By January 2025, when Trump took office again, Secretary of State Blinken assessed Iran’s nuclear breakout time at approximately one to two weeks. The situation was dramatically worse than under the JCPOA and significantly worse than when Biden took office.

The nuclear problem Trump used to justify the war was one his 2018 withdrawal created. Biden’s failure to reverse it made it worse.

But wait — didn’t Trump already bomb the nuclear sites in June 2025?

Yes. And the administration’s own claims about what those strikes accomplished are central to understanding why this war doesn’t add up.

In June 2025, the U.S. and Israel launched massive strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities — Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. The U.S. operation (“Midnight Hammer”) involved seven B-2 stealth bombers dropping 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs. Trump declared victory:

“Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated.”

“It was my great honor to Destroy All Nuclear facilities & capability, and then, STOP THE WAR!”

The White House published a statement titled: “Iran’s Nuclear Facilities Have Been Obliterated — and Suggestions Otherwise are Fake News.”

The intelligence community’s assessment told a different story.

A leaked Defense Intelligence Agency assessment found that the strikes only sealed the entrances to underground facilities — the centrifuges were “largely intact” and the enriched uranium had likely been moved before the bombs fell. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists found satellite imagery from June 9 showing trucks moving containers into underground tunnels approximately two weeks before the strikes hit. The uranium survived.

The DIA estimated the program was set back “a few months.” The Pentagon said “around 2 years.” Neither said “obliterated.” By November 2025, the White House’s own National Security Strategy quietly changed the language to “significantly degraded” — a major retreat from “obliterated.”

The timeline from there creates a series of contradictions that are difficult to reconcile:

Date	What Trump Said	What Was True
June 2025	”Completely and totally obliterated”	DIA: centrifuges intact, uranium likely moved before strikes
November 2025	White House: “significantly degraded” (walking it back)	IAEA: 400+ kg of enriched uranium still exists
February 2026	Envoy Witkoff: Iran is “a week away” from bomb material	Experts skeptical — Iran has no access to material, no centrifuges running
February 28, 2026	Launched full-scale war — partly over the nuclear program	The same program he said he “obliterated” 8 months earlier
March 18, 2026	Trump: Iran is “starting it all over”	Gabbard (under oath): Iran made “no efforts” to rebuild enrichment^[1]
April 2026	Trump: “They don’t have nuclear potential”	Simultaneously ordered commando plan to seize uranium that survived underground

That last entry is worth examining closely. Trump said “they don’t have nuclear potential” while simultaneously ordering a ground operation to physically seize enriched uranium — an operation that would only be necessary if nuclear material existed.

When a reporter asked about ground troops, Trump said: “We’re going to find out about that. We haven’t talked about it, but it was a total obliteration. They haven’t been able to get to it.” In one breath: “total obliteration” and “they haven’t been able to get to it” — acknowledging the material is still there.

Secretary of State Rubio was more honest: “We may need to physically secure nuclear material inside Iran. People are going to have to go and get it.”

Trump said he destroyed the nuclear program. The DIA said he didn’t. His White House quietly walked it back. He started a full-scale war partly justified by the same nuclear threat. His own DNI then confirmed, under oath, that Iran wasn’t rebuilding.^[1] And his administration began planning ground operations to seize uranium that, according to the president, doesn’t exist.

How the War Started

On February 28, 2026, Trump launched “Operation Epic Fury,” the largest U.S. military operation in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. U.S. and Israeli forces struck 24 Iranian provinces.^[5]

Was there congressional authorization?

No. The Constitution (Article I, Section 8) gives Congress, not the president, the power to declare war. Trump never asked.

The War Powers Act of 1973 requires congressional authorization for hostilities beyond 60 days
The House narrowly rejected a war powers resolution 219-212 on March 5
The Senate rejected a similar resolution along party lines on March 4

Bipartisan criticism was immediate. Republican Rep. Thomas Massie called the strikes “acts of war unauthorized by Congress.” Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine called it “an illegal war.”^[8]

Was there an imminent threat?

The administration’s own officials have provided testimony that undermines this justification.

Tulsi Gabbard is Trump’s Director of National Intelligence — his top intelligence official. On March 18, 2026, she testified before the Senate:^[1]

Sen. Jon Ossoff asked directly: “Was it the assessment of the intelligence community that there was an imminent nuclear threat posed by the Iranian regime? Yes or no?”
Gabbard refused to answer. She said: “The only person who can determine what is and is not an imminent threat is the president.”
Her written testimony, submitted to the committee, stated that Iran had made “no efforts” to rebuild its nuclear enrichment program after earlier strikes in June 2025.
When pressed on this, she confirmed: “Yes.”
Bloomberg reported that she omitted this enrichment language from her spoken opening statement. She submitted one thing in writing and said something different out loud.

Trump’s own intelligence director confirmed, under oath, that Iran was not rebuilding its nuclear program before the war started — and deliberately omitted that fact from her public testimony.^[1]

Joe Kent was Trump’s Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, a former Army Green Beret with 11 combat deployments and a Gold Star husband (his wife Shannon was killed by ISIS in Syria in 2019). He was a Trump loyalist who ran for Congress twice with Trump’s endorsement.^[2]

On March 17, he resigned. His letter:^[2]

“Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby.”

“I cannot support sending the next generation off to fight and die in a war that serves no benefit to the American people.”

He addressed Trump directly: “Until June of 2025, you understood that the wars in the Middle East were a trap.”^[2]

Kent isn’t a Democrat or a media critic. He’s a Gold Star combat veteran with 11 deployments who ran for Congress with Trump’s endorsement, and he resigned because he could not support this war.

What It Has Cost America

Money

First 6 days: $11.3 billion (Pentagon told senators in classified briefing)
That’s more than the $9.4 billion in total savings DOGE achieved
Republicans have proposed up to $200 billion in additional war spending
April 29 update: first official Pentagon disclosure: Pentagon CFO Jules Hurst told the House Armed Services Committee that Operation Epic Fury has cost about $25 billion to date, “most of that in munitions.” Hurst said the Pentagon is preparing a roughly $200 billion supplemental funding request for Congress.
First major downstream business failure (May 2): Spirit Airlines shut down after Trump’s $500 million bailout collapsed; jet-fuel costs from the war were the underlying cause. 17,000 jobs lost. Spirit was the first major U.S. airline to fold for financial reasons in 25 years.

Gas Prices

Date	National Average	Brent Crude Oil
Late February (pre-war)	~$3.00/gal	~$65/barrel
March 8	$3.48/gal	$100+/barrel
March 15	$3.72/gal	~$105/barrel
March 21	$3.94/gal	$108/barrel
March 31	$4.02/gal	$126/barrel (peak)
April 12	$4.12/gal	$103/barrel
April 30	$4.30/gal	~$120/barrel
May 3	$4.39/gal	$125+/barrel

Trump dismissed the surge on March 8 as “a little glitch.” By March 25, he told donors at an NRCC dinner: “I thought that the energy prices, oil price, would go up higher… but it didn’t matter to me.”

Stanford economists estimate the average American household is paying $740-$857 more per year for gas. Meanwhile, oil companies, which gave $75 million to Trump’s 2024 campaign, could rake in $60 billion in additional profits this year. Oil executives acknowledged they will not boost production despite the windfall.

Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse: “American consumers are getting squeezed at the gas pump as Trump’s war of choice sends money flowing to his Big Oil donors.”

Military Casualties

The Pentagon’s official count: “approximately 303 wounded.” But The Intercept’s independent investigation found:^[3]

At least 750 troops wounded or killed
At least 15 confirmed dead, over 520 injured
200+ sailors treated for smoke inhalation aboard the USS Gerald R. Ford were excluded from the count
An anonymous defense official: “This is a subject Hegseth and the White House want to keep under major wraps.”

CBS News interviewed several dozen survivors of the March 1 Kuwait drone strike that killed 6 soldiers. They directly contradicted Defense Secretary Hegseth’s claim that defenses were strong and only “a squirter” got through:^[4]

On drone defenses: “I would put it in the ‘none’ category.”
On whether the position was fortified: “About as weak as one gets” — wood and tin, no overhead cover.
On whether the deaths were preventable: “Absolutely, yes.”

The Broader Economy

Diesel surged 40%+ — 5 million Northeast households seeing heating bills double
Fertilizer prices up 40%, nitrogen fertilizer projected to double
30-year mortgage rates climbed from under 6% to 6.53%
S&P 500 dropped 4.8% in March
Consumer sentiment hit the lowest of the year
CNBC reported that gas price increases are offsetting the tax refunds from Trump’s “big beautiful bill”

What Has the War Achieved?

A straightforward assessment of what the administration said it would accomplish, measured against results:

Has Iran’s nuclear program been stopped?

No. Roughly 1,000 pounds of 60%-enriched uranium, enough for 9-10 bombs, remains in underground facilities at Isfahan, Natanz, and Fordow. The IAEA confirmed the uranium “hasn’t been moved.” Iran sealed the tunnel entrances. The material survived the airstrikes. Trump claimed he “obliterated” the nuclear program, then weighed sending ground troops to seize the uranium that survived.

Gabbard’s testimony confirmed Iran wasn’t rebuilding enrichment before the war started.^[1]

On April 17, Trump told CBS News that Iran “agreed to everything” including handing over the uranium. Iran’s foreign ministry immediately denied it, calling the enriched uranium “sacred to us like the soil of Iran.” A senior Iranian official told CNN the claims were “alternative facts.” Axios reported the U.S. may unfreeze $20 billion in Iranian assets as part of a deal — 12 times the amount Trump spent years attacking Obama for unfreezing.

Has the Strait of Hormuz been reopened?

No. On April 17, Iran declared the strait “completely open” — oil dropped 10% and Trump called it a “great victory.” Less than 12 hours later, on April 18, Iranian gunboats fired on a tanker and two Indian-flagged ships, and Iran re-closed the strait under “strict control” until the U.S. ends its blockade. Trump responded by threatening to “start dropping bombs again.” The ceasefire expires April 22. The strait carries roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply and remains contested.

Has Iran’s military been destroyed?

No. More than half of Iran’s missile launchers remain intact. Thousands of attack drones remain in its arsenal. Iran shot down an F-15E and an A-10 — after Trump claimed they had “no air defenses.” Iran struck Israeli cities near a nuclear facility. Iran launched fresh missile strikes even after Trump said their “navy, air force, communications are gone.”^[5]

Have gas prices gone down?

No. The national average went from $2.98 pre-war to $4.39 by May 3 — a 47% increase. California hit $7 per gallon. The May 2 collapse of Spirit Airlines, the first major U.S. airline failure in 25 years, was driven directly by the jet-fuel cost shock from the war.

Has America’s standing improved?

No. NATO allies refused to participate in the Hormuz blockade.^[6] Germany’s defense minister: “This is not our war; we have not started it.” The UK and France co-hosted a 40-nation summit without the U.S. Only Israel backed the blockade. Ukraine abandoned the U.S. entirely — signing 10-year defense deals with Saudi Arabia and Qatar, deploying 200 drone specialists to the Gulf, and striking Russian oil facilities without U.S. approval. Polling shows 52% of Americans support impeachment over the war. Support for the war ranges from 24-44% depending on the poll and wording.

What has it cost?

The UN’s humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher told Chatham House that his entire $23 billion humanitarian target — enough to save 87 million lives globally — could have been funded in less than two weeks of Iran war spending. The war costs approximately $2 billion per week. Harvard and CNBC estimated the total cost to U.S. taxpayers could reach $1 trillion. CSIS documented $11.3 billion spent in the first 6 days alone.

At home: gas went from $2.98 to $4.39 nationally — a 47% increase ($7+ in California). Consumer sentiment hit its lowest level in the 74-year history of the Michigan survey. Wholesale inflation hit a 3-year high. The Pentagon disclosed on April 29 that the war has cost $25 billion to date, with a $200 billion supplemental in preparation. 13 U.S. service members have been killed and roughly 400 wounded.^[3] Sailors enforcing the blockade reported food shortages (“USS Hunger Games”) while mail deliveries were suspended. On May 2, Spirit Airlines became the first major U.S. airline to fold for financial reasons in 25 years; jet-fuel costs from the war were the underlying cause.

The U.S. previously provided 40-45% of global humanitarian funding. Those cuts are devastating communities across sub-Saharan Africa and East Africa, where the war is driving food and fuel inflation near 20%.

What Has Trump Actually Said About This War?

His own words, in order. Every quote below is sourced from official statements, Truth Social posts, or on-camera interviews.

Date	What Trump said
Mar 3	”We won the war.”
Mar 7	”We defeated Iran.”
Mar 9	”We must attack Iran.” / “The war is ending almost completely, and very beautifully.”
Mar 12	”We did win, but we haven’t won completely yet.”
Mar 14	”Please help us.” (to allies)
Mar 16	”Actually, we don’t need any help at all.” / “I was just testing to see who’s listening to me.”
Mar 20	”NATO are cowards.”
Mar 21	”We don’t use it, we don’t need to open it.” (Strait of Hormuz)
Mar 22	”This is the last time. I will give Iran 48 hours.” / “Iran is Dead.”
Mar 23	”We are giving them more time.”
Mar 25	”We are still negotiating.”
Mar 28	”War will be over soon.”
Mar 30	”Open the Strait or we will obliterate all energy infrastructure and oil wells.”
Mar 31	”We don’t need the strait, we got plenty of oil. Get it yourself UK.”
Apr 1	”Iran wants a ceasefire.” / “Strongly considering pulling out of NATO.” / “There’s no deal with Iran.”
Apr 5	”Power Plant and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!!!”
Apr 7	”A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.”
Apr 12	”The pope is WEAK on Crime and terrible for Foreign Policy.”
Apr 13	”Open the F---n’ Strait, you crazy bastards. Praise be to Allah.” (Easter Sunday)
Apr 16	”We’re having some fake inflation.” (in Las Vegas at $5/gallon gas)
Apr 16	”The pope said Iran can have a nuclear weapon.” (PolitiFact: Pants on Fire — the Pope never said this)
Apr 17	”It’s over. It’s a great victory.” (Iran fired on ships 12 hours later)
Apr 17	”We’ll have to start dropping bombs again.”
Apr 17	”Why don’t they just say JOB WELL DONE, MR. PRESIDENT?”
Apr 19	Admitted the Easter post was designed to seem “unstable and insulting.” Asked aides: “How’s it playing?” (WSJ)
Apr 20	”The whole country is going to get blown up.”
Apr 21	”I would have won Vietnam, very quickly.” (Five-time draft dodger)
Apr 21 AM	”I expect to be bombing, because I think that’s a better attitude to go in with.”
Apr 21 PM	”I have directed our Military to extend the Ceasefire.” (Same-day reversal, posted after markets closed)

Read it top to bottom. This is one person, in charge of one war, over 52 days.

Who Does Benefit?

The benefits of the war have not flowed to the American public. They’ve flowed elsewhere.

The oil industry

Oil companies gave $75 million to Trump’s 2024 campaign. The war sent oil from $65 to $126/barrel. The industry stands to make $60 billion in additional profits. They’ve said they won’t increase production. Trump told the Financial Times his “preference would be to take the oil” in Iran.^[11]

Israel

Netanyahu told his cabinet on April 13 that the Trump administration “reports to me every day” about the war.^[7] Vance’s first call after failed peace talks in Islamabad was to Netanyahu, not to Congress.^[6] Trump told the Times of Israel: “We’ve destroyed a country that wanted to destroy Israel.” His counterterrorism director resigned specifically because “we started this war due to pressure from Israel.”^[2]

Iran’s hardliners

The war killed Iran’s 86-year-old Supreme Leader — and replaced him with his son, described as even more hardline. Iran gained global sympathy. Iran demonstrated it could close the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s president wrote an open letter to the American people that went viral, turning Trump’s “America First” slogan against him: “Is America First truly among the priorities of the US government today?”^[9]

The American public

Gas is up 35%. The war costs $11.3 billion every 6 days. Military casualties are being undercounted.^[3] NATO allies declined to participate.^[6] Consumer sentiment is at its lowest of the year. CNBC reported that gas price increases are offsetting the tax refunds from the “big beautiful bill.” The nuclear problem the war was supposed to solve remains unsolved. And multiple officials chosen by Trump himself, including his DNI^[1], his counterterrorism director^[2], and his former media allies, have stated publicly that the war was unnecessary.

”But Didn’t Iran Deserve It?”

This is a fair question, and it deserves a direct answer.

Iran is not a good actor. The Iranian regime is authoritarian, represses its own people, supports proxy groups, and has been hostile to the United States for decades. Nobody is arguing Iran is innocent.

But whether Iran is a bad actor and whether this war was the right response are two separate questions.

There was no imminent threat (Trump’s own DNI confirmed this)^[1]
We already had a deal that was containing Iran’s nuclear program (Trump tore it up)^[8]^[12]
The war hasn’t stopped Iran’s nuclear program (the uranium is still there)
The war has cost Americans billions and sent gas prices soaring
The war has made Iran’s position stronger, not weaker
The war has isolated the United States from its own allies^[6]

It’s possible to believe Iran is a genuine threat and also believe this war was the wrong response. Joe Kent reached exactly that conclusion — and he has more combat experience than most of the officials who advocated for it.^[2]

The Deal We Already Had

This may be the most important part of the whole story.

Before Trump withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018:^[12]

Iran had shipped out its enriched uranium
Iran had dismantled two-thirds of its centrifuges
Iran was under intrusive international inspections
Iran’s breakout time was over 1 year
Every intelligence agency confirmed compliance

After Trump withdrew:

Iran resumed enrichment to 60%
Iran accumulated enough material for 9-10 bombs
Breakout time collapsed to weeks
Inspections were degraded

”But Iran stopped letting inspectors in — that’s why Trump pulled out”

This is the most common defense of the withdrawal, and it’s false. Here’s the record:

The IAEA certified Iran’s compliance in every single quarterly report from January 2016 through May 2018. More than a dozen consecutive reports. Zero findings of noncompliance with inspections. On May 9, 2018 — the day after Trump withdrew — IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano stated: “Iran is subject to the world’s most robust nuclear verification regime under the JCPOA. The IAEA can confirm that the nuclear-related commitments are being implemented by Iran.”

When Trump claimed Iran was blocking access to military sites, Amano directly contradicted him: “The IAEA has had access to all locations it needed to visit.”

Trump’s own officials confirmed compliance:

Official	Position	What They Said
Rex Tillerson	Secretary of State	Formally certified Iran’s compliance to Congress — twice (April and July 2017)
James Mattis	Secretary of Defense	”I believe they fundamentally are [compliant].” Told Senate staying in the deal was in U.S. national interest.
Gen. Dunford	Chairman, Joint Chiefs	”Iran is adhering to its JCPOA obligations. The JCPOA has delayed Iran’s development of nuclear weapons.”
Gen. Selva	Vice Chairman, Joint Chiefs	”It appears that Iran is in compliance with the rules laid out in the JCPOA.”
Dan Coats	Director of National Intelligence	The JCPOA “enhanced the transparency of Iran’s nuclear activities.” Intelligence “did not suggest a breach.”

Trump himself certified Iran’s compliance twice before declining to certify a third time — and that decertification wasn’t based on Iran blocking inspections. It was based on the subjective judgment that sanctions relief wasn’t “proportionate” to Iran’s behavior.

Trump’s actual stated reasons for withdrawing (from his May 8, 2018 speech): sunset clauses, ballistic missiles, Iran’s regional behavior, and the deal being “one-sided.” He criticized the structure of inspection provisions — not a claim that Iran was blocking inspectors.

When did Iran actually limit inspections? Only after Trump withdrew:

Date	What Happened
May 2018	Trump withdraws. IAEA confirms Iran still in full compliance.
May 2019	One year later — Iran announces it will begin reducing commitments, citing U.S. sanctions
July 2019	Iran begins exceeding enrichment limits — but still allows inspectors access
Feb 2021	Iran suspends enhanced monitoring — nearly three years after Trump withdrew

Iran explicitly stated each reduction was a reversible response to Trump’s withdrawal. The foreign minister said the steps were “reversible if sanctions were lifted.”

America’s closest allies agreed Iran was complying. The UK, France, and Germany issued a joint statement: “According to the IAEA, Iran continues to abide by the restrictions set out by the JCPOA. The world is a safer place as a result.” They opposed the withdrawal. The only governments that supported it were Israel and Saudi Arabia — neither of which was a party to the deal.

The timeline runs in the opposite direction from what the claim suggests. Trump withdrew first. Iran stayed in compliance for over a year. Iran then began reducing cooperation gradually, explicitly as a response to the reimposed sanctions. The cause and the consequence are being presented in reverse.

After the war:

The uranium is still there, underground
A more hardline leader is in charge
Diplomatic channels are destroyed
Iran has more motivation than ever to weaponize
The U.S. has spent over $11 billion and counting

Sen. Tim Kaine: “I think that decision by President Trump to tear up a diplomatic deal will go down in history as one of the worst decisions in the foreign policy space ever made by an American president. If you make diplomacy impossible, you tend to make war inevitable.”^[8]

Iran’s President Pezeshkian, in his open letter: “Iran pursued negotiations, reached an agreement, and fulfilled all its commitments. The decision to withdraw from that agreement was made by the U.S. government.”^[9]

What Trump’s Own People Said

Every person in this table was chosen, appointed, or endorsed by Trump:

Person	Role	What They Said
Tulsi Gabbard	Director of National Intelligence	Confirmed under oath Iran was NOT rebuilding enrichment before the war^[1]
Joe Kent	Counterterrorism Director	”Iran posed no imminent threat. We started this war due to pressure from Israel.” Resigned.^[2]
JD Vance	Vice President	Warned of “regional chaos and untold casualties” before strikes (per book)
Tucker Carlson	Former top MAGA media ally	”Figure out the codes on the football yourself. This is 100% real.”
Alex Jones	Former top MAGA media ally	”WAR CRIME ALERT!! This IS NOT WHAT WE VOTED FOR!!!”
MTG	Former top Trump ally in Congress	”25TH AMENDMENT!!! We cannot kill an entire civilization. This is evil and madness.”
Candace Owens	Former top MAGA media ally	”He is a genocidal lunatic.”
Sen. Ron Johnson	Trump ally	”I do not want to see us start blowing up civilian infrastructure.”
Retired Brig. Gen. Anderson	Military analyst	Warned of “Nuremberg-like trials” for those following “illegal orders”

The opposition to this war isn’t coming from the other party. It’s coming from inside the administration and from the media figures who built Trump’s base.

Where Things Stand Now

April 12: 21-hour peace talks in Islamabad collapsed. Trump ordered a full naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.^[6]
April 13: NATO allies refused to join. Britain: “We are not getting dragged in.” Only Israel backed the blockade. The blockade took effect at 10 AM ET.^[7]
April 14: Independent maritime tracking data (Kpler, MarineTraffic, BBC Verify) showed at least 7 vessels, including sanctioned tankers, transited the strait on the blockade’s first day. CENTCOM claimed “no ships got past,” contradicted by the tracking data. Ships reportedly paying Iran $2M+ tolls in yuan or cryptocurrency. Pre-war traffic was 138 ships/day; now ~3.4/day.
Gas prices: $4.12+ nationally, $7+ in California, $7.50 in the UK, $8+ in France, $10+ in the Netherlands.
Casualties: At least 750+ according to independent analysis.^[3] Pentagon continues to undercount.
Nuclear program: 1,000 lbs of enriched uranium survives underground.
April 15: White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller went on Hannity and said the U.S. can continue the blockade “indefinitely,” calling it “the total resetting of the American power dynamic for the next 100 years.” Miller’s pre-election posts (“Kamala = WWIII. Trump = Peace”) are circulating widely.
Public opinion: Only 24% say the war has been worth the cost (Ipsos, April 10-12). 52% support impeachment. Among Trump’s own voters, 53% opposed involvement before the war began.
Consumer sentiment: University of Michigan index hit 47.6 — lowest in the survey’s 74-year history. Survey director: “Many consumers blame the Iran conflict.”
April 16: Trump called war-driven inflation “fake” during a Las Vegas event where gas was $5+/gallon. He said prices were “not very high.” Quinnipiac: 65% of voters blame Trump for the gas spike.
April 16: House failed to pass war powers resolution by ONE vote — 213-214. Senate had rejected it for the 4th time the day before. The 60-day War Powers Act deadline is approaching.
April 17: Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz “completely open” for commercial ships during the ceasefire. Oil plunged 10% to ~$85/barrel. But Trump said the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports “will remain in full force” until a peace deal. Maritime intel firm Windward: only risk-tolerant vessels returned — “no blue-chip operators.”
April 17: Trump told CBS News that Iran “agreed to everything” including handing over enriched uranium. Iran’s foreign ministry immediately denied it: “Iran’s enriched uranium is sacred to us like the soil of Iran.” A senior Iranian official told CNN the claims were “alternative facts.” Axios reported the U.S. is considering unfreezing $20 billion in Iranian assets — 12 times what Trump excoriated Obama for.
April 17: Families of deployed sailors shared photos of meager meals aboard warships enforcing the blockade (a single tortilla with pulled meat, gray processed slabs) under the hashtag “USS Hunger Games.” Sailors report being “hungry all the time.” Mail deliveries to the Middle East were suspended (later resumed). Hegseth denied food shortages.
April 17 (evening): Trump told reporters the Hormuz crisis was “over” and called it “a great victory.” On Air Force One, he also threatened: “Maybe I won’t extend it. So you have a blockade, and unfortunately, we’ll have to start dropping bombs again.” The ceasefire expires April 22.
April 18 (morning: less than 12 hours later): Trump’s “great victory” collapsed. An Iranian Revolutionary Guard ship fired on a tanker in the strait. A second container ship was hit by an “unknown projectile.” Iran’s military re-closed the strait under “strict control” until the U.S. ends its blockade. India summoned Iran’s ambassador after two India-flagged ships were fired upon. At least 3 attacks on commercial ships occurred Saturday.
April 18: Iran’s Parliament Speaker: “The President of the United States made seven claims in one hour, all seven of which were false.” Iran denied the uranium deal for the third time: “Enriched uranium is as sacred to us as Iranian soil.”
April 19 (WSJ investigation): The Wall Street Journal reported that when an F-15E was shot down over Iran on Good Friday (April 3), Trump “screamed at aides for hours.” His staff physically kept him out of the Situation Room because “they believed his impatience wouldn’t be helpful.” He was briefed only at “meaningful moments.” Trump later admitted his Easter “Praise be to Allah” post was improvised to appear “unstable and insulting.” The WSJ concluded his war decisions are “broadly improvised and made without coordination with advisers.” The source is the Wall Street Journal — a Murdoch-owned, right-leaning paper.
April 20: Iran refused to attend a third round of peace talks after the U.S. seized an Iranian cargo ship. Trump threatened to “blow up the whole country.” Iran called Trump “erratic.”
April 21 (morning, CNBC): Trump said he did NOT want to extend the ceasefire: “I expect to be bombing, because I think that’s a better attitude to go in with.” He also claimed he “would have won Vietnam, very quickly” — having dodged the draft five times.
April 21 (afternoon, Truth Social: minutes after markets closed): Trump reversed himself and extended the ceasefire indefinitely. The Vance delegation to Islamabad never took off despite Trump saying they were “on their way.” Iran’s national security adviser: the extension “has no meaning.”
April 21: The IEA declared the Iran war has caused “the biggest energy crisis in history.” The EU’s foreign affairs chief: “Daily U-turns, whether the Strait of Hormuz is open or closed, are reckless.”
The U.S. is now seven weeks into what officials initially said would be a 4-to-6-week campaign. Tucker Carlson, once Trump’s most powerful media ally, publicly apologized for endorsing him: “I’m sorry for misleading people. We’ll be tormented by it for a long time.”
Insider trading investigations: The CFTC is actively investigating suspicious oil trades before Trump’s market-moving Iran announcements (Bloomberg, BBC). The BBC documented 5 distinct instances with timestamps. Democratic senators reported ~$950 million in oil bets. The White House warned its own staff against making Iran-related bets.
Cook Political Report: Shifted 4 Senate races toward Democrats.
April 22: Nuclear authority debate revives. Citing the WSJ rescue report, Rep. Scott Peters (D-CA) wrote a Hill op-ed pushing his Nuclear First-Strike Security Act (H.R. 3564), which would require the Secretary of Defense to certify any first-use nuclear order — except in declared war or response to an attack. A Senate version led by Sen. Edward Markey (D-MA), the Restricting First Use of Nuclear Weapons Act (S. 192), would require explicit congressional authorization. The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists has urged Trump to voluntarily adopt a “two-person rule.” Both bills are unlikely to pass without Republican support. Separately, former CIA officer Larry Johnson claimed on Andrew Napolitano’s podcast that Trump asked Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Dan Caine for nuclear codes during an April 18 Iran meeting; the White House called the claim false, and no major outlet has independently confirmed it.
April 23: NYT: war has drained U.S. weapons stockpiles. A New York Times investigation, syndicated by Irish Times, Haaretz, and others, reports the war’s running cost approaches $1 billion per day, with a total of roughly $28-35 billion to date (a congressional-staff estimate goes as high as $50 billion when maintenance and facility damage are included). U.S. forces have fired more than 1,000 Tomahawk cruise missiles at $3.6 million each, about 10 times the annual U.S. production rate. Roughly half the Patriot interceptor stockpile has been used, along with more than half the THAAD interceptor stockpile and 45% or more of the Precision Strike Missile inventory. Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI), the top Democrat on Senate Armed Services: “At current production rates, reconstituting what we have expended could take years.” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt called the article’s “entire premise … false” and said stockpiles are sufficient.
April 23: Trump orders Navy to “shoot and kill” mine-laying boats. “There is to be no hesitation,” Trump posted, also ordering minesweepers “tripled up” and saying the strait is “Sealed up Tight.” Iran’s parliamentary speaker said reopening the strait is “impossible” while the U.S. blockade remains.
April 24: Hegseth Pentagon briefing. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth held a Pentagon press briefing alongside Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Dan Caine. He called the Iran war Trump’s “gift to the world,” said the U.S. blockade was “going global” and “tightening by the hour,” called Iranian forces “a gang of pirates with a flag,” and ridiculed the U.K.-France-led 51-country Hormuz summit as “a silly conference in Europe.” He acknowledged that American ships are not operating inside the Strait of Hormuz “because doing so would put them in range of Iranian drone or missile attacks,” an admission that the blockade does not control the waterway it claims to control.
April 24: Reuters: a leaked Pentagon memo proposes punishing allies who sat out the war. Reuters reported that Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon’s top policy adviser, prepared a memorandum laying out options to retaliate against NATO members who declined to support the Iran war. The two most striking proposals: suspending Spain from NATO (no member has ever been suspended in NATO’s 76-year history), and reviewing the U.S. position on British sovereignty over the Falkland Islands. Pentagon Press Secretary Kingsley Wilson confirmed the spirit of the memo: “The War Department will ensure that the President has credible options to ensure that our allies are no longer a paper tiger and instead do their part.”
April 24: Estonia weapons delay. Slate reported that Hegseth informed Estonia’s defense minister that delivery of HIMARS munitions and Precision Strike Missiles, contracted in 2022, would be delayed indefinitely because U.S. stockpiles were burned through during the Iran war. Estonia’s Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur said his country would “certainly have to review our decisions” on future U.S. arms procurement if delays continued.
April 24: Trump calls for Obama’s arrest. In late-night Truth Social posts, Trump amplified declassified Brennan notes and called for Barack Obama to be arrested for “treason” over the 2016 Russia investigation. Treason is a federal capital offense. No bipartisan investigation, including the Mueller report and the Senate Intelligence Committee’s bipartisan five-volume report, has identified conduct by Obama meeting that or any lesser standard. Former DOJ official Anthony Coley: “This isn’t just false; it’s reckless.”
April 25: NBC: Iran inflicted billions in damage to U.S. bases. NBC News reported that Iran caused more than $5 billion in damage to U.S. military bases in the Middle East during the war, hitting more than 100 targets across at least 11 bases. An Iranian F-5 fighter jet breached U.S. air defenses to strike Camp Buehring in Kuwait. An E-3 Sentry early-warning aircraft was destroyed. According to NBC, 13 U.S. service members died and nearly 400 were wounded. The White House asked private satellite companies, including Planet Labs, to suppress images of the damaged bases. One Republican aide on the difficulty of getting briefings: “No one knows anything. And it’s not for lack of asking.” Hegseth had said publicly in March that Iran’s military had “almost nothing they can militarily do about it”; Trump said Iran had been “obliterated.”
April 25: A gunman charges the White House Correspondents’ Dinner. At approximately 8:35 p.m. ET, a 31-year-old man named Cole Tomas Allen, a guest at the Hilton, charged a security checkpoint armed with a shotgun, a handgun, and multiple knives. One Secret Service officer was shot but saved by his bulletproof vest. The suspect was subdued without being shot. Trump and the Cabinet attendees were evacuated. Allen’s manifesto detailed a plan to kill Trump and other administration officials. Norah O’Donnell of CBS’s 60 Minutes the next day read aloud a passage in which Allen called Trump a “pedophile, rapist, and traitor”; Trump called the segment “disgraceful” and volunteered, unprompted, “I’m not a pedophile … I’m not a rapist.” Trump used the incident within hours to push his $400 million White House ballroom project, citing the need for “bulletproof glass.” FBI Director Kash Patel was filmed standing outside the Hilton “agape.” “Staged” conspiracy theories spread on both left and right; Trump told CBS that theory “would be a tough sell.”
April 25: Trump cancels Iran talks over the flight time. Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were set to travel to Islamabad for direct negotiations with Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who was already in place. Trump told Fox News: “you’re not making an 18 hour flight to go there.” He posted on Truth Social: “Too much time wasted on traveling, too much work!” Iranian officials told the Daily Beast they would now negotiate only with VP JD Vance, citing his pre-war opposition to Middle East military intervention.
April 27: German Chancellor Merz says U.S. is being “humiliated.” Bloomberg reported, and ABC News, Al Arabiya, the Washington Examiner, and Newsmax confirmed, that German Chancellor Friedrich Merz publicly said the United States is being “humiliated” by Iran in the war’s negotiations. Merz: Iranian negotiators are proceeding “very skilfully — or indeed very skilfully not negotiating.” On U.S. strategy: “I don’t see what strategic exit the Americans are now choosing.” Germany is among the United States’ closest NATO allies; the bluntness of the assessment is unusual.
April 27: Senate Republicans tell The Hill they are losing confidence in Hegseth. Anonymous GOP senators told The Hill that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth would not be confirmed today if Trump renominated him. His original January 2025 confirmation came on Vice President Vance’s tie-breaking vote. Cited concerns: senior staff turmoil at the Defense Department, his ongoing feud with Army Secretary Dan Driscoll, and his decision to end the decades-old military flu vaccine requirement. Hegseth is scheduled to meet with senior members of the Senate Armed Services Committee in the coming days; the 60-day War Powers Act deadline is approaching.
April 27: State Department admits to the U.N. the U.S. is fighting “in collective self-defense” of Israel. Reed D. Rubinstein, the State Department’s legal adviser, wrote in a formal U.N. Security Council filing that the United States “is engaged in this conflict at request of and in collective self-defense of its Israeli ally, as well as in exercise of the United States’ own inherent right of self-defense.” This directly contradicts Trump’s repeated public claim that “Israel never talked me into the war.” Trump has framed the war as a U.S. response to an Iranian threat to America. The State Department’s own filing, the U.S. legal position before the Security Council, frames it as the United States entering Israel’s war.
April 28: Putin’s superyacht sails through the Hormuz blockade. The Nord, a 142-meter Russian superyacht owned by interests linked to Vladimir Putin, cruised through the Strait of Hormuz despite the U.S. naval blockade Trump has called “sealed up tight.” iNews characterized the passage as “casual.” Hegseth had acknowledged days earlier that American ships are not actually operating in the strait itself because doing so would put them in range of Iranian drone or missile attacks.
April 29: Hegseth’s first congressional testimony since the war began. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Dan Caine, and Pentagon CFO Jules Hurst testified before the House Armed Services Committee. Hurst disclosed the war has cost about $25 billion so far. Casualties acknowledged in the hearing: 13 service members killed, 400 wounded. Asked by Ranking Democrat Adam Smith for the Pentagon’s strategy, Hegseth said, “I take issue with the premise of the question.” Smith pressed: “OK. What’s the plan?” Hegseth pivoted to praising Trump’s “courage and intellect” and did not give a substantive answer. Hegseth at one point told the committee: “The biggest adversary we face at this point are the reckless, feckless and defeatist words of congressional Democrats and some Republicans.” Members of both parties pressed him to clarify the line. Smith later: “Wish fulfillment is not a strategy.” Rep. Joe Courtney (D-CT) called the war an “astounding incompetence.” Rep. Salud Carbajal (D-CA), responding to Hegseth’s deflection to attacking California: “I’m sad for all the people who voted for Trump. I’m sad because you betrayed them.” Republican Rep. Nancy Mace, previously skeptical, said Hegseth “surpassed all my expectations.” Sources: Defense News, Al Jazeera, Washington Post, ABC News, PBS NewsHour, MSNBC, the Independent, and the official testimony filed by the House Armed Services Committee.
April 30: Hegseth’s Senate testimony. Hegseth returned the next day before the Senate Armed Services Committee and repeated the same characterization of congressional critics as the country’s “biggest adversary.” Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI), the ranking Democrat: “I have concerns you have been telling the president what he wants to hear instead of what he needs to hear.” Reed said the U.S. is “in a worse strategic position” than before the war and that Trump had “no coherent strategy” when he “unilaterally” began it. When Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) pressed Hegseth on why Senate-earmarked Ukraine funds had not been used for Ukraine, Hegseth deflected; the Pentagon CFO answered “we’ll get back to you.” Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) pressed Hegseth on possible insider trading around Trump’s Iran announcements; he responded by noting he had kept Operation Midnight Hammer secret, and at points shouted “Big, fat negative!” in response to her questions. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) noted that “three out of five Americans are against this war”; Hegseth disputed her numbers. Source: The Independent.
April 30: Trump calls New York Times coverage “seditious.” Late that night, Trump posted that an NYT op-ed arguing the U.S. military had been caught off guard by Iran’s cheaper drones was “actually seditious.” Sedition under federal law (18 U.S.C. § 2384) is a felony requiring a conspiracy to overthrow or destroy the government by force; a critical op-ed does not meet that standard. Source: HuffPost.
May 1: Pentagon announces 5,000-troop withdrawal from Germany. The withdrawal, scheduled over six to twelve months, was widely understood as direct retaliation for German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s April 27 statement that the U.S. was being “humiliated” by Iran. Asked by reporters May 2, Trump said: “we’re cutting a lot further than 5,000,” and threatened similar withdrawals from Spain and Italy for “not helping” the Iran campaign: “Probably… look, why shouldn’t I?” Republican leaders of both armed services committees publicly broke with the administration, saying the decision risked “undermining deterrence and sending the wrong signal to Vladimir Putin.” Approximately 30,000 U.S. troops remain in Germany after the withdrawal. Sources: NPR, CNN, Washington Post, NBC News, CNBC, Time.
May 2: Spirit Airlines shuts down; first major U.S. airline to fold in 25 years. Spirit began an orderly wind-down of all operations after a $500 million White House bailout package collapsed; a key creditor group rejected it because the deal would have given the federal government significant equity control of the airline. The underlying cause was the jet-fuel cost shock from the Iran war: Brent crude past $125 a barrel, U.S. gas at $4.39 a gallon. Approximately 17,000 jobs ended overnight. Spirit had been the price floor of the U.S. budget-travel segment, and its disappearance is expected to push fares higher. Sources: NPR, Washington Post, CNN, Axios, NBC News.
May 3: Iran offers a 14-point peace proposal; Trump rejects it. On Day 65 of the war, Iran offered a plan that included guarantees of nonaggression by both countries, sanctions relief, lifting of the U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and an end to the war “on all fronts” including Lebanon. Trump said: “It’s not acceptable to me. I’ve studied it, I’ve studied everything — it’s not acceptable.” He separately claimed his representatives are having “very positive discussions” with Iran. Sources: Al Jazeera, Times of Israel, Washington Post.
May 3: Trump’s letter to Congress: April 7 ceasefire reset the War Powers Resolution clock. In a letter to Congress over the weekend, Trump argued: “There has been no exchange of fire between the United States Forces and Iran since April 7, 2026.” The argument is that the ceasefire “reset” the 60-day authorization-or-withdraw window in the War Powers Resolution. The text and legislative history of the WPR do not support this reading, and no prior administration has interpreted the law that way. The legal effect of the argument: the U.S. can keep forces deployed indefinitely without a congressional vote.
May 3-4: U.S. launches mission to escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Two American-flagged merchant ships transited the strait Monday morning. Hundreds of vessels have been stranded in or around the strait since the U.S. naval blockade began in March. Senior Iranian official Ebrahim Azizi warned that any U.S. interference in the strait would be considered a violation of the ceasefire that nominally took effect April 7 — the same ceasefire Trump cited in his weekend letter to Congress. The White House X account posted an image of Trump holding playing cards from the Uno game with the caption “I have all the cards.” Sources: Washington Post, Al Jazeera, Times of Israel.
Ceasefire status (May 4): The Trump-extended ceasefire announced April 21 is technically still in effect, though Iran has now framed the U.S. ship-escort mission as a violation. The week added: a 5,000-troop withdrawal from Germany in retaliation for an ally’s criticism of U.S. war policy; the public rejection of Iran’s 14-point peace proposal; a War Powers Resolution argument that lets U.S. forces stay deployed indefinitely without a vote; and the first major U.S. airline collapse in 25 years driven by jet-fuel costs from the war. No new round of formal talks is scheduled.
May 7: CIA assessment: Iran can outlast the blockade for 3-4 months. The Washington Post reported on a confidential CIA analysis delivered to Trump administration policymakers. The assessment concluded Iran can survive the U.S. naval blockade for at least three to four months before facing more severe economic hardship. Iran retains approximately 75% of its prewar mobile launcher inventory and 70% of its prewar missile stockpiles. Iran has reopened underground storage facilities and repaired damaged missiles. The intelligence assessment directly contradicts the administration’s public claims. Hegseth had said in March that Iran’s military was “so quickly destroyed and made combat ineffective”; in his April 29 House testimony he said the U.S. had “wiped out their military”; Trump told a Florida audience May 2 that Iran was “in a State of Collapse.” Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) on the gap: “They lied through their teeth. Just straight up fabricated shit.” Source: Washington Post.^[13]
May 7: Strait of Hormuz combat resumes. U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz to the Gulf of Oman. Iran fired missiles at three of the destroyers. U.S. forces struck Iranian missile and drone launch sites, command-and-control nodes, and intelligence/surveillance facilities. Trump on the response: “we’ll knock them out a lot harder, and a lot more violently” if Iran does not sign a deal soon. Source: Times of Israel, Al Jazeera.^[14]
May 11: Iran reveals its terms; Trump rejects them on Mother’s Day. Iran’s terms for ending the war: war reparations for damage sustained during the conflict; Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz; end to the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports; lifting of U.S. sanctions; guarantees against further U.S. attacks (including in Lebanon); and elimination of the U.S. ban on Iranian oil sales. Trump’s reply on Truth Social during a Mother’s Day rage-posting spree: “I have just read the response from Iran’s so-called ‘Representatives.’ I don’t like it — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!” Source: Daily Beast.^[15]
May 11-12: USS Alaska Ohio-class submarine deployed to Gibraltar. The Pentagon publicly disclosed the location of the USS Alaska, an Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine — one of the most secretive nuclear platforms in the U.S. arsenal. The submarine bypassed the nearby U.S. naval base in Rota, Spain (about 141 km away) and docked at the British-controlled territory of Gibraltar instead. Public disclosure of a ballistic missile submarine’s location is highly unusual. The Pentagon framed the move as a deliberate signal of nuclear posture; analysts called it an escalatory step from a diplomatic-pressure footing toward a reinforced nuclear-deterrence posture in the Atlantic-Mediterranean corridor.^[16]
May 12: Trump on whether Americans’ financial pain motivates him: “Not even a little bit.” Asked by reporters before departing for China how much Americans’ financial situations were motivating his Iran negotiations, Trump answered: “Not even a little bit. The only thing that matters when I’m talking about Iran is they can’t have a nuclear weapon.” When ABC News pressed him on the war’s impact on citizens struggling with food prices, he doubled down. The next day, Vice President JD Vance flatly denied Trump had said it: “I don’t think the president said that. I think that’s a misrepresentation of what the president said.” Trump’s remark was on camera the day before. Source: The New Republic.^[17]
May 7: Court of International Trade strikes down Trump’s Section 122 tariffs. A 2-1 ruling in Burlap and Barrel, Inc. v. Trump found the Trump administration’s tariffs imposed under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 are unlawful. Section 122 was the never-before-used provision Trump invoked the same day the Supreme Court ruled in February that IEEPA does not authorize the president to impose tariffs. Trump appealed May 8. This is the second tariff scheme blocked by federal courts in three months. The administration is in the process of refunding the $166 billion in IEEPA tariffs already paid by importers; the Section 122 ruling adds the $190 billion in customs duties from October-April 2026 to the potential refund obligation. The economic case for the war’s costs being absorbed by future tariff revenue continues to narrow.^[18]
Ceasefire status (May 14): The April 21 ceasefire is now technically broken. The May 7 destroyer engagement and U.S. strikes on Iranian launch sites and command nodes were the first direct combat since April. Iran’s terms have been publicly rejected. The USS Alaska is in Gibraltar. The CIA’s classified assessment is that Iran can outlast the U.S. blockade for at least three to four months. The administration’s public claims that the war is essentially over and that Iran’s military has been destroyed are contradicted by the U.S. intelligence community’s own analysis. No new round of formal talks is scheduled. The president has stated that Americans’ financial hardship from the war is “not even a little bit” relevant to his decision-making.
May 16: Trump doubles down on the “not even a little bit” remark. In an interview with Fox News’s Bret Baier that aired after the Beijing summit, Trump was asked about his May 12 remark that he doesn’t think about Americans’ financial situation in his Iran calculations. He replied: “That’s a perfect statement.” Asked if he would say it again: “I’d make it again.” Trump acknowledged “short-term pain” on gas prices and pivoted to the stock market and employment figures. The same week, the national average regular gas price was approximately $4.53 per gallon (GasBuddy), up roughly $0.40 month over month and more than $1.30 year over year. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released a CPI report showing prices up 3.8% from the same point last year, with gasoline alone up 5.4% in the month. A separate survey reported by The Independent found that Americans “overwhelmingly blame the president” for high gas prices, rising mortgage rates, and food costs. The Strait of Hormuz remained blocked. Source: The Independent.
May 18: Iran formalizes its toll authority for the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council announced the creation of the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA), a state body to administer the Strait of Hormuz. The PGSA opened a social-media presence the same day and began sending shipping regulations to vessels transiting the strait. It also formalizes a toll-collection system Iran has been running for weeks, structured as “maritime insurance policies.” Iranian deputy speaker Hamidreza Hajibabaei said toll revenue had already been received as of April 23. The U.S. position, as articulated jointly by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi earlier in 2026, is that “no country or organization can be allowed to charge tolls to pass through international waterways.” The PGSA is the formal answer to that position. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had previously acknowledged in April that American ships are not operating inside the strait because doing so would put them in range of Iranian drone and missile attacks. Maritime expert Yörük Işık on Iran’s calculation: “Iran is encouraged from the failures and hyper-personalized foreign policy of the Trump administration and is really testing the limits.” Twenty percent of the world’s traded oil and natural gas transited Hormuz before the war began. The toll system the U.S. blockade was meant to prevent now operates under a formal Iranian state institution.^[19]
May 21: A Congressional Research Service tally puts the war’s losses far above what the administration had acknowledged. The CRS, compiling Department of Defense and CENTCOM statements and news reports, counted up to 42 U.S. aircraft and drones lost or damaged, including 4 F-15E Strike Eagles, 2 MC-130J special-operations aircraft, an E-3 Sentry AWACS, 7 KC-135 refueling tankers, 24 MQ-9 Reaper drones, and a $240 million MQ-4C Triton. The human toll: 13 U.S. service members killed and more than 350 injured, alongside an estimated 3,468 Iranian civilians killed. The financial cost is now reported at $29 billion officially, with internal assessments closer to $50 billion; the Pentagon comptroller attributed part of the increase to “a refined estimate on repair or replacement costs for equipment.” The losses include an AWACS and a Triton, among the most expensive and hard-to-replace platforms in the U.S. inventory.^[20]
May 24-26: U.S. strikes Iran during Qatar peace talks; Trump summons his cabinet over the crumbling ceasefire. On Monday, May 24, U.S. forces struck Iranian boats and missile launch sites within hours of Iranian negotiators arriving in Qatar for talks aimed at ending the war. Iranian state media confirmed the strikes also hit Bandar Abbas, the country’s main naval and air base complex. CENTCOM characterized the strikes as defensive, against vessels attempting to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz; the framework under discussion in Doha included reopening commercial transit through the strait, sanctions relief, and a future track on Iran’s nuclear program. Trump on Truth Social: “Back to the Battlefront and shooting, but bigger and stronger than ever before.” Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei responded: “America will no longer have a safe haven for mischief and the establishment of military bases in the region.” On May 26, Trump summoned his entire cabinet — including outgoing DNI Tulsi Gabbard — to a meeting first scheduled for Camp David and then moved to the White House because of weather.^[21]
May 27, 2026 (TNR analysis): Trump’s emerging deal mirrors the JCPOA he tore up. Joe Cirincione, writing in The New Republic, argues the framework now reportedly under discussion — unfreezing Iranian assets and lifting sanctions in exchange for Iran dismantling its enriched-uranium stockpile — is the same arrangement Obama’s team negotiated in 2015. Before the war began in late February, Iran had offered to dismantle its uranium stockpile and suspend enrichment for three to five years (Al Jazeera, May 11; House of Commons Library, CBP-10637). Washington rejected the offer because Trump demanded a permanent end to all enrichment, not a multi-year suspension. The 21-hour Islamabad round collapsed; Trump launched Operation Epic Fury days later. The terms now reportedly back on the table, Cirincione writes, “It’s not ‘unconditional surrender’ by a long shot.” Trump’s own DNI Tulsi Gabbard testified under oath that Iran had made no efforts to rebuild its enrichment program before the war started.^[22]
May 27, 2026: Trump skipped the 14 Iran-war wounded at Walter Reed during his own checkup. CBS News first reported, and The New Republic followed on May 28, that during Trump’s third Walter Reed checkup in 13 months he met with some military personnel at the facility but declined to visit the 14 service members recovering from wounds sustained in the Iran war. The White House declined to comment. Trump has a documented history of avoiding visibly injured veterans; his 2019 first-term remark to staff planning a military parade, reported by The Atlantic, was: “Look, I don’t want any wounded guys in the parade. This doesn’t look good for me.”^[23]
Late May: a $300 billion “investment fund.” Reporting from the New York Times, Axios, CNN, and CBS describes a draft U.S.-Iran agreement that would route roughly $300 billion into postwar Iranian reconstruction. Iran had demanded reparations. U.S. negotiators relabeled the money an “international investment fund” to avoid a backlash at home, since Trump spent years attacking Obama’s $400 million Iran settlement. The idea originated with envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, both real-estate investors, who floated real-estate projects in Tehran. Trump posted, “No money will be exchanged, until further notice.”^[24]
May 30: Trump tells Fox the U.S. “shouldn’t have been in Iran.” In an interview with his daughter-in-law Lara Trump on Fox News’ “My View,” Trump said, “We shouldn’t have been in Iran, but Iran has the capability,” a rare suggestion from the president that the war was a mistake. In the same interview he claimed Iran’s “navy is gone, 100%” and its “air force is gone, 100%,” while also saying the U.S. had “sort of left it alone.” His stated justification, that without U.S. B-2 strikes Iran would have built a nuclear weapon, conflicts with the sworn Senate testimony of his own intelligence director, Tulsi Gabbard, that Iran posed no imminent threat.^[25]
June 1: Iran halts talks and vows to fully close Hormuz. Iran’s state-affiliated Tasnim agency announced that Tehran would stop exchanging messages with the United States through intermediaries and would move to “completely block the Strait of Hormuz,” citing ceasefire violations and Israel’s operations in Lebanon. Oil prices jumped more than 7%. The escalation followed a White House Situation Room meeting days earlier that ended without Trump making a decision on a deal. He posted that Iran “really wants to make a deal” and told critics to “just sit back and relax.” In a CNBC interview the same day, he said of the talks, “I don’t care if they’re over, honestly. I really don’t care. I couldn’t care less,” and predicted oil would soon be “dropping like a rock.” Axios reported that in a private call the same day, Trump berated Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu over Israel’s strikes in Lebanon, telling him “everybody hates Israel because of this”; an Israeli source disputed that account.^[26]

Sources

1. Gabbard testimony — ABC News (March 18, 2026) 2. Joe Kent resignation letter — AP (March 17, 2026) 3. The Intercept: Pentagon casualty cover-up (April 1, 2026) 4. CBS News: Kuwait survivors contradict Hegseth (April 9, 2026) 5. Washington Post: Hegseth’s claims contradict reality (April 7, 2026) 6. NPR: U.S. military blockade as peace talks collapse (April 12, 2026) 7. New Republic: Netanyahu — Trump reports to me every day (April 13, 2026) 8. Kaine on JCPOA — The Hill (April 13, 2026) 9. Iran’s open letter to the American people — Reuters (April 2, 2026) 10. Federal Reserve: tariffs caused all excess inflation — Reason (April 13, 2026) 11. Financial Times: Trump secretly begging for ceasefire since March 21 12. January 6 Committee report on JCPOA 13. Washington Post: U.S. intelligence says Iran can outlast Trump’s blockade for months (May 7, 2026) 14. Times of Israel: Following clash, Trump threatens more force if Iran doesn’t agree to deal (May 7, 2026) 15. The Daily Beast: Iran reveals demands that triggered Trump’s rage post (May 11, 2026) 16. The Hill: Pentagon reveals location of nuclear-armed submarine after Trump rejects Iran proposal 17. The New Republic: Trump doesn’t care ‘even a little bit’ about Americans’ finances and the Iran war (May 12, 2026) 18. NPR: Trade court strikes down a second round of Trump tariffs (May 7, 2026)

19. Newsweek: Iran announces new body to manage Strait of Hormuz (May 18, 2026) 20. Daily Beast: True scale of Trump’s military disaster in Iran war is revealed (May 21, 2026), citing a Congressional Research Service compilation of Department of Defense and CENTCOM data. 21. The New Republic: Trump Summons Entire Cabinet as Iran Deal Crumbles in Front of Him (Ellie Quinlan Houghtaling, May 26, 2026) and CNBC: Trump to host Cabinet meeting at Camp David on Wednesday as Iran talks continue (May 26, 2026) 22. The New Republic: Trump’s “Deal” Looks a Lot Like… the One Obama Struck 11 Years Ago (Joe Cirincione, May 27, 2026) and Al Jazeera: ‘Unacceptable’: What’s Iran’s peace proposal that Trump has rejected? (May 11, 2026) and House of Commons Library: US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear talks in 2026 23. The New Republic: Trump Skips Visit to Soldiers Injured in Iran War at Walter Reed (Hafiz Rashid, May 28, 2026)

24. Times of Israel: Emerging US-Iran MoU said to reference possible $300B postwar ‘investment fund’ and Mediaite: Iran Could Receive $300 Billion ‘Reconstruction Program’ Under Emerging Deal: NYT and The New Republic: Guess What Jared Kushner Tried to Include in Iran Peace Deal

25. Common Dreams: Watch: Trump Admits ‘We Shouldn’t Have Been in Iran’ (May 31, 2026) and The Business Standard: Trump says US ‘shouldn’t have been in Iran’

26. CNBC: Iran stops negotiations with U.S., vows to ‘completely’ block Strait of Hormuz: State media (June 1, 2026) and CNBC: Trump tells CNBC: ‘I don’t care’ if Iran negotiations are over (June 1, 2026) and The Independent: Trump says ‘crazy’ Netanyahu has made everyone hate Israel in furious phone call (June 2, 2026)